Managing Products with Agility · Topic 3 of 3
Forecasting and Release Planning
Forecasting and release planning for PSM I: burn-downs, burn-ups and cumulative flow, empiricism in forecasts, and releasing Increments early.
- 3 min
- Burn-downs, burn-ups and cumulative flows are useful but do not replace empiricism.
- Only what has already happened may be used for forward-looking decisions.
- Progress toward the Product Goal is discussed at the Sprint Review.
What it is
In complex work, the future cannot be predicted precisely, so Scrum relies on empiricism for planning. Teams forecast progress from what has actually happened, and they release value whenever an Increment is usable rather than waiting for a fixed release phase.
How it works
Forecasting
- The Scrum Guide notes that various practices exist to forecast progress, such as burn-downs, burn-ups or cumulative flows.
- While proven useful, these practices do not replace the importance of empiricism. In complex environments, what will happen is unknown. Only what has already happened may be used for forward-looking decision making.
- Progress toward the Product Goal is discussed at the Sprint Review, where the forecast can be inspected and adapted.
Forecasts are not commitments. At Sprint Planning the Developers select the items they expect to complete; the commitment for the Sprint Backlog is the Sprint Goal, not the selected items.
Release planning
- An Increment must be usable, and it may be delivered to stakeholders before the end of the Sprint.
- The Sprint Review should never be considered a gate to releasing value.
- Multiple Increments may be created within a Sprint.
- Each Sprint can deliver value, so releases follow value and feedback, not a fixed release phase. Scrum.org guidance treats the release decision as part of the Product Owner's accountability for value; the Scrum Guide itself does not say who decides.
No special Sprints
Scrum has no release Sprint, hardening Sprint or stabilisation Sprint. All work necessary to achieve the Product Goal, including quality and release work, happens within Sprints, and every Increment must meet the Definition of Done.
If a question offers a forecast "guaranteed" by a burn-down or velocity, choose the option that treats forecasts as based on past evidence and revisited as the team learns.
How the exam asks about this
- "What do burn-down charts replace?" Nothing; they do not replace empiricism.
- "What may be used for forward-looking decisions?" Only what has already happened.
- "Can an Increment be released before the Sprint Review?" Yes, the Sprint Review is not a gate to releasing value.
What to remember for the exam
- Burn-downs, burn-ups and cumulative flows are useful but do not replace empiricism.
- Only what has already happened may be used for forward-looking decisions.
- Progress toward the Product Goal is discussed at the Sprint Review.
- Increments can be released at any time during the Sprint.
- There are no release or hardening Sprints.
A long-term plan with fixed dates for every feature ignores empiricism. In Scrum, plans adapt as the team learns from each Increment.
Common mistakes
Treating a forecast as a promise. It is based on past evidence and revised.
Waiting for the Sprint Review to release. Release when an Increment is valuable and usable.
Adding a release Sprint. All work happens within normal Sprints.
Check yourself
Do forecasting practices such as burn-downs replace empiricism?
No. They are useful, but only what has already happened may be used for forward-looking decisions.
Must an Increment wait for the Sprint Review to be released?
No. It may be delivered to stakeholders before the end of the Sprint.
At which event is progress toward the Product Goal discussed?
The Sprint Review.
Topic 3 of 3 in Managing Products with Agility
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